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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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