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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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