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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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