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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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