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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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