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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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