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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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