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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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Showing 1426 to 1430 news of total 6871 |
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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