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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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