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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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