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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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