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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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