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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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