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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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