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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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