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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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