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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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