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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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