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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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