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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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