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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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