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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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