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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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