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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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