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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- The University of Queensland
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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