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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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