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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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