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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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