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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
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