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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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