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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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