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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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