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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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