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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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Showing 1691 to 1695 news of total 6871 |
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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