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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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Showing 1701 to 1705 news of total 6871 |
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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