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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
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Showing 1696 to 1700 news of total 6871 |
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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