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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
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Showing 1686 to 1690 news of total 6871 |
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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