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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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