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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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Showing 1671 to 1675 news of total 6871 |
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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