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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
Thursday, 12 July 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS BEING FIXED AROUND USD 10500 BSS SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Cape market continue to be extremely volatile says Fearnleys in its latst weekly report.
The further noted that, last week ended wi ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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