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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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