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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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Showing 1651 to 1655 news of total 6871 |
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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