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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
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Showing 1656 to 1660 news of total 6871 |
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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