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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
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Showing 1646 to 1650 news of total 6871 |
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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