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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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Showing 1641 to 1645 news of total 6871 |
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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