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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
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Showing 1631 to 1635 news of total 6871 |
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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