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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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