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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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Showing 1636 to 1640 news of total 6871 |
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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