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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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