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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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