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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
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Showing 1606 to 1610 news of total 6871 |
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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