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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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Showing 1596 to 1600 news of total 6871 |
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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