We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
|
|
|
Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
