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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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Showing 1581 to 1585 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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