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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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Showing 1571 to 1575 news of total 6871 |
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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