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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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Showing 1566 to 1570 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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