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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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