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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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